How do you mend Ballard's dashed dreams of light rail?

Find $10 billion.

Sound Transit said it needs about that much in fresh federal and local money, as well as financial maneuvers and more engineering to trim the size of future stations, to deliver the long-awaited project by 2042.

That's the best-case scenario, as leaders described Monday night to a crowd of 375 people at the National Nordic Museum. Failure is not an option," declared Seattle City Councilmember Dan Strauss, who represents Ballard. When voters originally approved higher transit taxes, service to Ballard was promised by 2035.

If those efforts do fail, transit riders might not get the voter-approved Smith Cove, Interbay and Ballard train stops until 2060, the agency acknowledged. Seven months ago, the three-county transit board declared those three stations unaffordable, but kept them alive by earmarking $300 million to plow ahead with station and trackway designs.

Meanwhile, Sound Transit says it's still on solid footing to afford a tunnel from Sodo to downtown and Seattle Center, for around $18 billion, also by 2042. To reach Ballard's busy Northwest Market Street at the same time, executives say, an extra $1 billion must be found by 2030 for land purchases, then $7 billion to $9 billion by 2033 for construction contracts — beyond the already-lofty existing car-tab, property and sales-tax boost that residents passed a decade ago.

"We've identified the path to delivering the entire Market Street extension by 2042," CEO Dow Constantine said Monday, at an event that was more of a pep rally than a requiem for transit.

Ballard's uncertain situation is just part of a regional reckoning this year, as leaders chip away at a $35 billion long-term shortfall revealed last year, while striving to reach West Seattle, Everett, Tacoma, Issaquah and South Kirkland as well as Ballard. Timelines are being delayed, parking garages and commuter-rail expansions are cut, and the agency seeks to borrow for longer than 40 years, to spread out the debt payments.

The public already pays $2.4 billion a year or $700 per capita to Sound Transit in property, sales and car-tab taxes, half borne by businesses, to finance the nation's biggest local transit expansion. The current 58-mile system serves 165,000 daily riders, steadily growing as lines extend.

A jewel in a future 112-mile network, Ballard Link is envisioned to be the most heavily used of the promised new corridors in the region, through dense Seattle neighborhoods. Early estimates said 70,000 people a day would ride between Ballard and Westlake, or 135,000 total between Ballard and Sodo, including short hops and people who would otherwise ride buses. Ballard is a designated "urban center" in regional housing plans, and continues its jarring growth since the early 21st century, with block after block of six- to seven-story apartment buildings.

Ballard light rail's current target of 2042 is already seven years late. Another generation of delay would make this Ballard's second "missing link," after the neighborhood's infamous bike trail segment that's gone unbuilt since the late 1990s.

Strauss, a Sound Transit board member, roared that a person can travel faster by bus from downtown Seattle to Tacoma, than from Ballard to downtown.

The crowd cheered when Strauss and audience members at the microphone called upon Mayor Katie Wilson and King County Metro to revive Ballard express bus routes. Wilson replied, "I love a good bus lane," in the wake of her recent changes to speed up Denny Way's Route 8, and her proposed sales-tax increase of 15 cents per $100 purchase, now before voters as Proposition 1, mainly to fund more bus service citywide.

The national angle

A lot will depend on national elections, Constantine said, and who controls the next Congress.

Sound Transit is assuming a 35% federal contribution for future projects within Seattle, senior staff said Monday. That's more than current local budgets show, but a similar ratio to what the feds gave to Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions.

But as of this summer, the Trump administration had failed to release mammoth Capital Investment Grants, except a $1.3 billion share for commuter rail in Utah, a solidly Republican state.

Sound Transit isn't being hindered by partisanship now, because the West Seattle and Ballard projects aren't fully designed yet. But the finance team is banking on $1 billion to $3 billion from Uncle Sam to reach West Seattle by 2035, and billions more for downtown and Ballard, in a few years.

If Democrats win a House majority, that likely promotes Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Everett, into chairmanship of the House Transportation Committee. "He is very focused, like a laser, on what we need to do to set up the circumstances in D.C., for Sound Transit to succeed," Constantine remarked. Larsen himself made similar comments last month, at North Seattle's new Pinehurst Station.

Closing the gap

Sound Transit is already seeking cost cuts, in response to severe construction inflation this decade, and to walk back exuberant promises that Sound Transit, including Constantine as former board chair, made long ago.

A South Lake Union station, next to Highway 99 bus stops and biotech employers, was quietly erased from the latest tunnel plan, along with Avalon Station in West Seattle.

Brad Owen, the top executive designing light rail extensions in Seattle, is exploring further concepts that save money without shortchanging service: a shallower station for Seattle Center requiring less excavation and fewer utility conflicts, and a leaner Sodo Station expansion, to reduce takings of warehouse and light-industrial lands.

But the agency was still showing obsolete maps Monday night with a "Midtown" station at the corner of Fifth Avenue and Madison Street downtown, along with a second International District/Chinatown Station next to the current stop, within its second downtown tunnel. Since spring 2023, the board has preferred different sites, at Pioneer Square and south of Chinatown, respectively — forecast to be $1 billion or more cheaper, but inferior for regional connections.

Owen looked placid as he tried to reassure the crowd that splitting the city's extensions into phases — with differing West Seattle, Sodo-to-Seattle Center, and Ballard projects — is actually normal. If funded, the Ballard construction can start midway though the downtown tunnel dig.

As an example, he said, Los Angeles Metro's tumultuous Purple Line subway project, from downtown to UCLA, is finally opening its three segments consecutively in 2026-27.

A highlight for Ballard supporters was seeing Pierce County Executive Ryan Mello on the podium. He acknowledged Ballard's pro-transit voters helped create a ballot win in 2016 for all light rail destinations including Tacoma.

"We're absolutely committed to successfully getting light rail to Market Street," said Mello, who is next in line to be board chair.

Mike Stewart, executive director of the Ballard Alliance, channeled the community's frustration. He drew applause saying at the microphone: "It is disheartening to see the timeline ebb from 2036 to 2039, and now to 2042. … But I love how hopeful you are and I know how hard you are all going to work.

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