CA: By throwing Merced under the train, California high-speed rail can succeed | Opinion

In its quest to put high-speed rail on the quickest path to financial viability, the California High-Speed Rail Authority appears prepared to throw Merced under the train in order to lay tracks between Palmdale and Gilroy.

This rather audacious plan, which would need tens of billions of additional dollars and leaves many questions unanswered, may be this much-needed transportation alternative’s only hope. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s original idea, the 171-mile train from Bakersfield to Merced, would lose tens of millions of dollars a year because too few people would ride it.

New leadership at the rail authority is banking on the California Legislature to fund this project for decades. If it doesn’t start with significant action before concluding the legislative session this week, Democratic lawmakers will be making true President Donald Trump’s claim that California has been building a “train to nowhere.”

The rail authority, in a report released last month, recommends delaying an extension to Merced and instead prioritize connecting the country’s first bullet train between the greater Bay Area and Southern California. The 171-mile Bakersfield-to- Merced route – which is required by a 2022 state law that prohibits spending more than $500 million on work outside that focus – is scheduled to be operational by January 2033.

The oft-criticized project, which voters approved in 2008 at a total estimated cost of $33 billion, has been blasted by critics, including President Donald Trump, as a “train to nowhere.” His administration is trying to claw back $4 billion in federal funding, saying it saw no path to completion.

Bullet train needs more breaks

We are a little more than six years away from the promised start of the bullet train, and many questions remain about one of California’s largest mega projects.

• Where will the rail authority get the $58.96 billion it needs to complete the Gilroy-to- Palmdale connection, much less the $62.69 billion should it include the Merced extension?
• The rail authority has $28.16 billion on hand, but that includes the $4 billion the Trump administration wants back. How certain is it that courts will rule in favor of high-speed rail?
• The rail authority got good news Wednesday when state lawmakers agreed to extend a $1 billion annual gift from cap-and-trade through 2045. It must now look for additional funds from private investors.
• At an Aug. 25 Sacramento press conference, rail authority CEO Ian Choudri asked state lawmakers for legislation to streamline right-of-way acquisitions and permitting to speed up construction. Four days later, a bill, Senate Bill 445, which would have done that, was put in the suspense file.

State Sen. Anna Caballero and Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, both Democrats representing the Merced area, have said they will not support any action to remove Merced from the initial bullet train route. They and Merced leaders point to the public investments that have been made in anticipation of high-speed rail.

“We have no credibility if, at the drop of the hat, we can change plans and leave communities high and dry that have made plans on the promise that the train is going to go from Bakersfield to Merced,” Caballero told The Fresno Bee.

“A lot of people have bought properties with the expectation of developing high-speed rail-oriented, transit-oriented businesses,” Merced Mayor Matthew Serratto said. “But with high-speed rail in limbo, it either inhibits or prevents development.”

Merced officials not happy

Merced officials have a valid argument. The rail authority provided the city with a $500,000 grant to prepare its downtown for a rail station. Officials planned to connect high-speed rail to other regional transit systems where passengers could travel to Yosemite National Park or the Bay Area through the Altamont Corridor Express, a commuter rail.

“We have been a champion of this project and have invested so many years of time and effort – hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not more,” said Stacie Guzman, executive director of the Merced County Association of Governments. “We certainly don’t want to invest in projects that are built on the foundation of a future with a high-speed rail station being here by 2033 if that is remaining in question.”

It is clear that the rail authority is pulling a bait-and-switch with Merced. That’s not great. But for the bullet train to become reality, the rail authority will have to temporarily sacrifice Merced in the name of fiscal responsibility. Bakersfield to Merced rail traffic, according to the rail authority, would generate up to $55.6 million in annual revenue but fail to cover annual operations of $120.6 million to $122.1 million.

Connecting to Gilroy and the Bay area would generate between $623.72 million and $882.93 million annually to offset up to $435.47 million in operating expenses, according to the rail authority.

But to get there, the rail authority will need to skip the Merced connection, convince the governor and state lawmakers to commit cap-and-trade dollars for 30 years and find a way to resurrect legislation (AB 445) to streamline right-of-way acquisitions. These are critical checkoffs for the rail authority to keep the project on the right track.

With actual rail scheduled to be laid next year, the authority has reached the point of no return. Political survivability requires support from Los Angeles and Bay Area legislators, and providing a plan that connects the state’s most populous regions and generates profit is a good step.

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