OP-ED: Winners and losers for Metro NYC Area Transportation projects

There is both good and bad news when you see what is missing in the March 9 announcement from U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Secretary Pete Buttigieg concerning President Joe Biden’s FY24 budget request under the Annual Report on Funding Recommendations Fiscal Year 2024 Capital Investment Grants (CIG) Program and Expedited Project Delivery Pilot Program for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). Transit advocates, supporters, commuters and various other transit agencies might want to ask U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, New York City (NYC) Mayor Eric Adams and New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Chairman Janno Lieber what happened to all the other projects that did not make the cut under the FTA CIG or other federal funded programs.

Making available $469 million in federal funding toward the $7.69 billion MTA NYC Transit Second Avenue Subway Phase Two project on top of $100 million Sen. Schumer previously had allocated leaves a shortfall of $2.8 billion toward the total $3.4 billion federal funding. The MTA is seeking $7.69 billion in a FTA Full Funding Grant Agreement. MTA would not be able to proceed with awarding construction contracts until all the funding is secured

Making available $700 million in new funding on top of the previous $292 million for the West Side Yard construction of a concrete casing for a box tunnel under the Hudson Yards In New York, construction of the box tunnel is necessary due to the multi billion development project planned over the Hudson Yards. All this does is preserve future access to Penn Station from the proposed two new tunnels to be built as part of the Gateway Tunnel. It represents a fraction of the overall project scope and budget. This represents a total of $929 million in federal funding leaves a shortfall of $7 billion toward the $8 billion federal share for funding the $16 billion Phase One Gateway Development Corporation Hudson River Tunnel project on behalf of Amtrak and New Jersey Transit. They are seeking a future $8 billion Capital Investment Grant Core Capacity FTA FFGA to pay for the $16 billion Gateway Tunnel Phase One Project. This does not include finding future funding to pay for another $23 billion toward the full build $39 billion Gateway Tunnel project.

MTA NYC Transit Canarsie Line Power and Station Improvements $100 million is still available. Why year after year, has the NY MTA been unable to secure an approved FTA FFGA for this project?

NYC Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) Woodhaven Boulevard Queens Select Bus Service Small Starts $97 million federal share for the total $258 million project cost. NYCDOT has been unable to secure an approved FTA FFGA for this project for six years.

The following projects failed to gain admission to the 2024 CIG program under project development. Since it averages five years after being admitted before receipt of any FTA FFGA, it is doubtful you will ever see a shovel in the ground until 2029 or later for the following projects.

Too many of these projects are still in the planning stage. Completion of any planning study to justify a project is only the first step. The cost estimates at this stage are just a guess. Cost estimates would have to be refined as progress proceeds beyond the planning and environmental phases into final design and engineering efforts.

For many of these projects, there needs to be resolution of a number of other issues, including completion of environmental reviews, design, engineering, easement rights, business relocation, land acquisition, agreements with owners of underground utilities like water, sewer, gas, electric, steam and cable, before being ready years later to commence construction. The scope of work might also include construction of tracks, sidings, signals, power, power substations, stations, commuter parking, land acquisition, business relocations, utility, water or sewer relocation agreements, and local feeder bus services. They might need to purchase additional rolling stock and modifications to existing or construction of new rail yards for maintenance and storage of equipment.

History has shown that estimated costs for construction usually trend upwards as projects advance during the final design and engineering phase. Progression of final design refines the detailed scope of work necessary to support construction. The anticipated final cost can never be known until completion. Costs would be further refined by award of construction contracts, followed by any unforeseen site conditions and change orders to the base contracts during the course of construction. This will be followed by beneficial use, completion of inspection and acceptance, as well as all contract punch list items, receipt of asset maintenance plans for al project components followed by release of retainage and final payment to the contractors.

Here are all the following projects which are missing.

• The $2.2 billion Light Rail between Jamaica and Long Island City on the old Lower Montauk Long Island Rail Road branch.,
• The $8 billion for restoration of LIRR service on the old Rockaway Queens branch (according to the MTA's own study released four years ago) known as the Queens Link has yet to advance beyond a final planning study released in 2019. Friends of the Queens Link local supporters of this project have their own planning study, with an anticipated a cost of $3.7 billion.
• A new Main Street Flushing Queens Intermodal Bus Terminal connecting to the NYC Transit No. 7 subway would need $100 million. The MTA never initiated a planning study funded under the 2015 - 2019 five year $32 billion capital plan for the Main Street Flushing Queens Intermodal Bus Terminal
• The $5.5 billion for Gov. Hochul's proposed Interborough Express, which would connect Brooklyn to Queens via light rail.
• The $2.7 billion plus for the NYC Department of Economic Development Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront Street Car Connector.
• The $7 billion for Gov. Hochul's Penn Station improvements .
• The new Port Authority 42nd Street Manhattan Bus Terminal needs $10 billion. Only $3.5 of the estimated $10 billion cost is actually approved within the current 2016 - 2026 Port Authority Capital Plan. They are counting on billions in future federal assistance to make up the shortfall.
• The Port Authority Cross Harbor Freight Tunnel requires $10 billion. This year, the project will celebrate its 32nd year anniversary of being stuck in the planning and environmental review phase.
• *The $2.05 billion LaGuardia Air Train received a positive NEPA finding from FHWA last year. Most funding has been secured within the current Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) Capital Budget. However, this $36 billion 2016 - 2026 10 Year Capital Plan faces a multi billion dollar shortfall. Gov. Hochul asked PANYNJ to revisit former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's Air Train and come up with other alternatives.
• The $2 billion Kennedy Airport One Seat Ride has been the subject of previous planning studies going back decades.
• The $3.6 billion LIRR electrification of Port Jefferson branch in Suffolk County from Huntington to Port Jefferson was originally discussed in the 1980s.
• Planning studies have been underway for 18 years to advance the $400 million Nassau Hub Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).
• The Metro North West Bronx Penn Station Access via the Manhattan west side Amtrak Empire Corridor project estimated cost is $400 million.
• NYC Transit Utica Avenue Brooklyn subway extension construction costs could be $5 to $10 billion depending upon the length and number of stations.
• The $1 billion new NYC Transit No. 7 subway station at 10th Avenue and 41st. This was deleted from original $2.4 billion Hudson Yard No. 7 subway extension to save $500 million.
• The Red Hook Brooklyn subway extension from NYC Transit No. 1 subway line from the Rector Street downtown Manhattan station to Red Hook at a cost of $3.5 billion.
• The NYC Transit Staten Island North Shore BRT $600 million project.
• The NYC Transit Staten Island West Shore BRT $1.5 billion project.

I would not count on seeing many of these projects ever built in your lifetime.

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Larry Penner is a transportation advocate, historian and writer who previously served as a former Director for the Federal Transit Administration Region 2 New York Office of Operations and Program Management. This included the development, review, approval and oversight for billions in capital projects and programs for NJ Transit, New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NYC Transit bus, subway and Staten Island Railway, Long Island and Metro North Rail Roads, MTA Bus, NYCDOT Staten Island Ferry and 30 other transit agencies in NY & NJ.

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*Editor's note: Op-ed was received prior to PANYNJ announcing it would shelve the AirTrain option and pursue bus options to improve transit connections to LaGuardia Airport.