NC: Key precincts, younger voters pushed Mecklenburg transit referendum to success

Younger voters and precincts near Charlotte’s center city helped propel the pivotal sales tax referendum on this year’s ballot to passage despite a swell of opposition in southeast Mecklenburg.

Mecklenburg County voted 52.1% to 47.9% to approve a 1% sales tax rate increase Tuesday. It’s projected to generate more than $19 billion in new revenue over the next 30 years, which will be spent on road, rail and bus projects including the Red Line commuter rail to the Lake Norman area and increased bus frequency on multiple routes.

Turnout countywide outpaced other recent municipal elections, with about 22% of registered voters casting ballots.

The referendum fared better in precincts that skewed younger and near existing or planned rail lines, a Charlotte Observer analysis of voter data found. The strongest opposition was centralized in and around Matthews — burned by shortened Silver Line light rail plans due to funding constraints.

The tax increase was likely the “top of the ticket” race for many voters, former Charlotte City Council member David Howard said.

“You could feel it out in the field during Election Day,” said Howard, a proponent of the transportation plan and former North Carolina Department of Transportation official.

Traffic congestion, public transit’s effect on neighborhoods and notable endorsements likely influenced voters most, local leaders and political experts say.

Where did referendum get most support?

The strongest support for the sales tax referendum was in NoDa, where 79.4% of voters at precinct 30 voted for the measure.

Nearby precincts in and around uptown and South End also showed strong support for the transportation plan, where upwards of 64% of voters at multiple precincts voted for the referendum.

Much of that area runs along or is close to the existing LYNX Blue Line light rail.

Experience with the public transit system and an “appreciation” for economic development spurred by transit may have influenced those voters to turn out for the referendum, Howard said. Residents in those rapidly densifying neighborhoods may have moved there in part because of the proximity to transit and a desire to not have to have a car, he added.

“They would have to say, ‘Hey, we would love to have a full system so I could take full advantage of not having a car,’” he said.

Another high-performing precinct for the referendum was precinct 206 in Davidson, where 72.7% of voters backed the transportation plan. The north Mecklenburg town is among those slated to be along the long-awaited Red Line commuter rail.

“They’ve been preparing for this type of investment for a decade or two,” Howard said of voters in that part of the county.

More generally, the referendum tended to do better in precincts whose voter pools skew younger, an Observer analysis found.

That support may have been driven by trends in younger generations away from car ownership, Howard said.

“They’re the Uber generation,” he said.

What areas opposed transportation referendum?

The referendum performed worst at precincts in and around the southeast Mecklenburg town of Matthews, where consternation with the transportation plan has simmered for months.

The west-to-east Silver Line light rail was slated for years to extend into the community. But the need to allocate more of the new tax revenue to roads to appease state legislators meant the planned line got shortened.

Leaders such as Matthews Mayor John Higdon lobbied unsuccessfully to restore the original Silver Line plan and were vocal about their opposition to the referendum. Southeast Mecklenburg also tends to be more conservative than other parts of the county, an electorate traditionally more generally skeptical of tax increases.

On Tuesday, voters in and around Matthews rejected the referendum as the highest rate of any part of the county. Fewer than 40% of voters voted for the referendum in multiple precincts.

Support for the referendum was also lower in precincts in east Charlotte, where the Silver Line will now end at Bojangles Coliseum. The existing Gold Line streetcar is also slated to expand further east. Prominent voices on the eastside opposed the referendum, including the community group CharlotteEAST and District 5 City Council member-elect JD Mazuera Arias.

The referendum also performed poorly in parts of north Mecklenburg west of Interstate 77, despite support for the plan in many precincts in the north to the east of the interstate.

A key factor in that divide was likely the Red Line plan, Howard said. More supportive precincts were generally closer to planned stops, where residents live in denser communities that have long planned for the commuter rail line, he noted.

“The people that decided to move on the other side of 77 decided to stay away from that,” Howard said.

What factors determined outcome of transportation referendum?

Among endorsements, Howard specifically cited the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg’s support, noting every candidate or issue the group endorsed this election cycle was victorious.

At her post-election press conference, Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles said the referendum’s passage was a sign of “trust” from voters in local government’s ability to execute the transportation plan and of voters’ desire to see something done to alleviate traffic.

Much of the pro-referendum campaign centered on addressing congestion on local roads.

Charlotte City Council member Ed Driggs, a leading advocate for the plan, said moments after the referendum was called on election night that focus was intentional.

“There’s much more than that to it, but in the minds of many of the voters tonight, I think the prospect of getting some help on the roads was important,” he said.

Mecklenburg County Commission Vice Chair Leigh Altman offered a similar take with a one-word answer when asked what pushed things over the top with voters: “Atlanta.”

What’s next for transportation plan?

The next major step for the transportation plan is the selection of the board that will lead the revamped region’s public transit system.

The state legislation authorizing the referendum called for the establishment of a new authority to govern the Charlotte Area Transit System. CATS is currently a city of Charlotte department also governed by the Metropolitan Transit Commission.

The new board will include 27 members chosen by the county, every municipality in Mecklenburg, the business community and the state leaders. Board members will generally serve four-year terms, but the inaugural board will include some two-year appointments so terms are staggered.

More than 130 people applied for the seats selected by Charlotte, the Observer reported previously. State legislative leaders Destin Hall and Phil Berger already made their choices: business leaders Ned Curran and David Longo.

The bodies in charge of appointing board members have a short window to get their people in place: state law says the new board must move quickly on multiple items within a year.

See where voters supported, rejected Mecklenburg transit tax

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