The same issues of insufficient track outages and Amtrak force account support (Amtrak employees) resulting in the $12.6 billion New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) East Side Access to Grand Central Madison completion being delayed a year and the cost increasing by a billion dollars may apply to the Metro North Railroad Bronx East Penn Station Access project schedule and budget.
MTA Metro North recently announced insufficient future track outages and force account support from Amtrak may delay completion by six to eight months. The project costs have already grown from $600 million 20 years ago to $3.1 billion prior to last year's construction contract award. This price tag does not include the cost for borrowing hidden under the MTA operating agency budget to help project financing.
It was always questionable if Amtrak could provide sufficient track outages and force account support to meet the MTA Metro North Railroad aggressive schedule for completion by 2027. Amtrak is responsible for $1 billion of the $3.1 billion scope of work. Amtrak resources are also committed to other projects along the Northeast Corridor between Washington, D.C., and Boston for years to come. Three of these in Metro New York area include the $1.6 billion New Jersey Northeast Corridor Portal Bridge, $16.8 billion Gateway Tunnel Hudson River and $1.6 billion LIRR East River Tunnel projects. Metro North Railroad has competing resource needs within its own annual capital and maintenance programs.
Only a review by an independent engineer for both Amtrak and Metro North 2023 annual Master Force Account and Track Outage Plans can validate that both agencies have the resources to support this project. Ditto for the project construction schedule. The schedule provides the weekly, monthly and yearly detailed internal construction project interim milestones, along with sequencing of work and critical path that justify the promised original 2027 completion date. Over the next few years, the project completion date might slip even more. The budget may also increase as construction contractors submit delay claims for insufficient and timely track access necessary to perform required work.
Claims that this project will save Bronx commuters up to 50 minutes in each direction are questionable. Metro North needs to reevaluate the anticipated 33,000 pre-COVID-19 ridership growth projections. Many people are going to continue telecommuting from home on a part- to full-time basis for years to come
There is the issue of how potential riders will arrive at the four new Bronx East Stations. For those outside of walking distance, there will need to be extension or creation of additional new NYC Transit feeder bus routes. What about parking for those commuters who would drive to the station? One way of reducing automobile congestion and pollution created by those who drive to Manhattan is to take cars off the road. Some commuters from other nearby Bronx, Westchester and Connecticut communities might elect to use new Bronx East Metro North service to Penn Station if there were sufficient available parking adjacent to these new stations.
It remains to be seen how many current Bronx bus and/or subway commuters will want to pay the higher fares charged by Metro-North. The MTA continues to delay previously scheduled fare increases of two percent per year. Adoption of the MTA's $51 billion 2020 - 2024 Five Year Capital Plan included revenues generated by a four percent fare increase every other year. There is a proposed five percent fare increase in 2023. This is sure to be followed by more fare increases in coming years. Riders would still have to pay twice when transferring from Metro North to the subway at Penn Station.
While some riders will exit Penn Station and walk to work, most will have to pay an additional fare for boarding the NYC Transit subway to other Manhattan destinations. These fares will inevitably go up over coming years prior to passenger revenue service is finally introduced.
Don't be surprised to wait until 2028 or 2029 before boarding the first Metro North New Haven branch Bronx East train to Penn Station.
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Larry Penner is a transportation advocate, historian and writer who previously served as a former director for the Federal Transit Administration Region 2 New York Office of Operations and Program Management. This included the development, review, approval and oversight for billions in capital projects and programs for New Jersey Transit, New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NYC Transit bus, subway and Staten Island Railway, Long Island and Metro North railroads, MTA Bus, NYCDOT Staten Island Ferry along with 30 other transit agencies in New York and New Jersey.
