Organizers of a tax initiative that seeks to establish a local funding source for a robust public transit system in Santa Cruz County say they have gathered enough signatures to put the proposal on the March 2028 primary election ballot.

Friends of Santa Cruz Metro campaign spokesperson Manu Koenig told the Sentinel that volunteers successfully collected 15,393 signatures in support of proposing a countywide half-cent sales tax to sustain and expand the transit agency’s sweeping system upgrades that were launched three years ago and have inspired significant ridership gains.

The total signatures, gathered over the course of more than four months, is well above the 10,417 verified signatures needed, but it’s best practice to build in a buffer in case the overall signature total drops due to duplicates or other errors, Koenig explained.

Koenig, acting as a private citizen and not as an elected county supervisor or member of the Metro board of directors, said the signatures have been submitted to the county Clerk’s Office for verification. Once the petition has cleared that regulatory hurdle, it will be submitted to the county Board of Supervisors, which can consolidate it with the next regular election, call for a special election or order a report about the impacts of the citizens initiative.

Given that the deadline for adding measures to the Nov. 3 General Election was Friday, Koenig said adding the half-cent increase to the March 2028 ballot was the likeliest scenario.

“Obviously it’s a more drawn-out timeline than most initiative campaigns,” said Koenig. “At the same time, it does take years of planning to successfully pull off an initiative.”

Should local voters approve the tax increase with a simple majority, the revenue generated would be used to support the Reimagine Metro program that was rolled out in 2023. Using greater internal efficiency and a one-time $28.3 million grant from the state, the systemwide overhaul came with a 40% service expansion, increased prevalence of 15-minute bus frequencies and free-ride initiatives such as Youth Cruz Free.

Metro staff has previously said that the agency will end the year with approximately 5.5 million boardings, which is 10% above pre-COVID levels and more than 70% above 2023 figures. The tax would also allow the agency to double down on Youth Cruz Free by extending toll-free options on fixed routes to seniors, people with disabilities and potentially low-income residents as well.

However, the grant that powered these services in the first place will soon run dry and Metro budget managers have previously said that if a new local funding source is not secured by March 2028, the agency will begin rolling back its route enhancements and cutting its workforce.

“We are densifying the urban area and most of these projects are planning for one parking spot per unit for two-bedroom, sometimes even three-bedroom units, and so there is an implicit need there for transit services,” said Koenig. “And we already have a highly dependent transit population between our university, UC Santa Cruz and Cabrillo College, and an aging population in general whose best driving days might be behind them.”

Some residents have spoken out against the tax effort amid fear that it will hit working families, small businesses and seniors on fixed incomes especially hard. In a county with rising rents and a high cost of living, initiative critics argue that Metro should live within its means by cutting waste and improving efficiency instead of asking voters to step up with ongoing support for a program launched with limited funding.

Meanwhile, the effort to power Metro’s expanded services for the foreseeable future cleared another big hurdle this week. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday that he signed Assembly Bill 1919, authored by Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, in order to allow Metro to benefit from sales tax proposals put forward by members of the public.

At the same time, there are other measures across the state threatening to give the Friends of Santa Cruz Metro campaign a flat tire. Proposition 43, sponsored by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, will be considered by California voters in November and needs a simple majority of “yes” votes to pass. The proposed constitutional amendment seeks to require at least two-thirds of voters, or 66.7%, to approve any local initiative that would create, extend or increase a special tax instead of the 50% plus-one simple majority currently needed.

The lower bar for approval of a citizens initiative has made that route more attractive to many proponents of the tax because the same proposal from the Santa Cruz Metro Board of Directors would come with a two-thirds supermajority requirement. At a special meeting in July, the Metro board considered the possibility of asking voters to weigh in on a proposed half-cent hike in November, but the idea was rejected by way of an 8-2 vote, even with Proposition 43 looming large over the discussion.

Another reason the Metro board opted to forego its own measure this year was because it would have competed against another half-cent sales tax increase formally requested by the county Board of Supervisors Tuesday. The board argued that the $27 million generated annually by the proposed increase for five years will be essential for the county and its partners to weather recent cuts to federal safety net programs and subsidies.

Koenig acknowledged to the Sentinel that some residents may be feeling some tax fatigue, but he contends that local leaders wouldn’t be asking for this extra funding if it wasn’t critically needed.

“I’m not eager to pay more taxes myself,” said Koenig. “That (county) measure is to protect essential emergency services and the (citizens initiative), at the same time, is to protect essential transit services.”

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