CA: First weekend service goes, then stations close: Caltrain maps a path toward possible shutdown

In a new plan set to go before the Joint Powers Board on Thursday, staff at the agency conjured a future as bleak as the one BART presented last month, with stations potentially mothballed and long stretches of track left empty. Absent reliable train service, officials predict that thousands of people would resort to driving, jamming Highway 101 and spilling into streets throughout San Mateo County.

Cuts would begin in summer 2027 if no external funding materializes. Initially, Caltrain would cancel weekend service, close more than a third of stations, reduce weekday service to once an hour instead of every 15 to 30 minutes, shut down operations by 9 p.m.each day, slash administrative costs and cut whole segments of the railway.

Such austerity measures, which closely align with the doom-loop scenarios released by BART and Muni, would be debilitating and could result in steep ridership loss. That would trigger a death spiral in which fare and parking revenue would plummet, which would prompt deeper cuts.

By fall of 2027, Caltrain and BART would likely run significantly eviscerated service, according to the staff report. How long that could last is unclear. Caltrain budget analysts currently believe they could limp along for one to two more years before instituting the nuclear option: shutting down passenger service entirely.

“If no external funding beyond Fiscal Year 2028 (which starts in fall 2027), there is a risk that Caltrain and BART may have to stop passenger service and focus exclusively on maintenance and safety of the corridor and assets,” the report says. Operating funds would be spent on security for shuttered stations, to ensure they do not get vandalized or stripped for copper wire.

Experts sometimes have difficulty explaining what caused this predicament. It started with the pandemic and the rise of remote work, which led to a drop-off in ridership. Though commuters have slowly returned, their patterns have changed and most only travel to the office part time. As of February, Caltrain had recovered about 63% of the ridership it drew before COVID. Meanwhile, emergency funds have dried out, leaving the agency with a $75 million annual deficit.

The blow comes amid what should be a period of growth for Caltrain. Two years ago the Peninsula agency transitioned its fleet from diesel fuel to electric overhead wires. Faster, quieter trains now whisk people to tech campuses, Warriors games at Chase Center and concerts at Levi’s Stadium. On an average Tuesday, Caltrain carries a total of three freeway lanes’ worth of people during rush hour, easing pressure on Highway 101 down the Peninsula, agency staff say.

In theory, Caltrain’s 51-mile stretch of electrified track would one day carry bullet trains from the Central Valley to downtown San Francisco. Yet it could just as easily become another mummified stretch of a once-healthy transportation network.

“We’ve still got time to prevent a public transit catastrophe — but not much,” said Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for the Connect Bay Area campaign to pass a regional sales tax for transit.

Caltrain officials struck a similarly sober tone, calling this period a “critical inflection point.”

The board is expected to vote on Caltrain’s “no external funding scenario” in May.

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