New poll shows Bay Area transit funding measure support is solid and strengthening

A poll of voters was conducted in five Bay Area counties to gauge the sentiment about a potential November 2026 transportation sales tax ballot measure. Findings will be presented to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) at their joint legislation committee meeting. MTC commissioned the poll after California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law state Senate Bill 63, a bill that authorizes voter consideration of a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties—and a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco. 

The tax measure would generate approximately $980 million a year, preventing major service cuts at Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) and other Bay Area transit systems. The funds would go to support transit safety, cleanliness, affordability and reliability, as well as to repair targeted roads and potholes. It would also require financial transparency, oversight and accountability mechanisms along with the funding.

“We’re building a broad, durable coalition because this measure is about both avoiding disastrous service cuts and building the Bay Area’s future,” said Bay Area Council Chair Kristina Lawson. “The Bay Area doesn’t work without public transportation, and our coalition is working hard to deliver this critical funding for the future of our region.”

The new EMC Research poll found that 56% of voters in the five counties that would be taxed would support the measure. Support has increased since the bill’s introduction by state senators Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Jesse Arreguín of Berkeley. A total of 84% of survey respondents say public transit is important to the Bay Area and 58% indicate transit is very important.

A total of 61% of voters across the five counties held a favorable opinion of transit in the Bay Area. Respondents also noted that transit in the Bay Area is trending in the right direction, the figure rising from 37% to 55% since polling was conducted in 2023.

Without a new funding mechanism, Bay Area transit could face significant financial shortfalls, including:

• BART: Could shut down two of its five lines, reducing service from 4,500 trains per week to just 500, with trains running only hourly and no weekend service.
• Caltrain: Trains would run only once per hour, end service by 9:00 p.m. on weekdays and eliminate all weekend service.
• Muni: Would face 50% cuts to all bus and Metro lines, including elimination of entire neighborhood routes and San Francisco’s iconic historic trolleys and cable cars.
• AC Transit: Would reduce service by 37%, bringing operations down to just half of pre-pandemic levels.

The funding would allow these agencies to protect and improve service, prevent service cuts, keep traffic and emission levels down, and improve and support the local economy with fortified access to reliable public transit.

The October poll received input from 2,800 respondents, hosting questions offered in English, Spanish or Chinese. EMC will present the full results of its most recent polling at the Friday, Nov. 14, meeting of the MTC-ABAG Joint Legislation Committee.

SB 63 allows a November 2026 transportation revenue measure to be placed on the ballot. The measure can appear either through action by the newly formed Public Transit Revenue Measure District—which is governed by the same board as MTC—though the measure would need to receive a supermajority vote, or via a qualified voter initiative led by citizens.