NC: Mecklenburg’s early voting is surging. That may mean trouble for the transit referendum | Opinion

By all accounts, Mecklenburg County voters seem more eager to vote in local elections than they were two years ago.

With just under a week to go until Election Day, early voting turnout is surging across the county. It’s hard to say for sure what is driving that surge, or what impact it might have at the polls. But there’s one big difference on the ballot: the inclusion of a transportation sales tax referendum that would fund billions in rail, bus and road projects across the county.

Particularly intriguing is the fact that the turnout surge is particularly high in Matthews, where town leaders have consistently rallied against the transit plan because they feel stripped of the benefits of light rail. Matthews has already surpassed its 2023 early vote total with three days of early voting left to go, according to data from the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections. So far, 2,647 early votes have been cast in Matthews, compared to 2,358 in 2023.

Mecklenburg County Commissioner Susan Rodriguez-McDowell, who opposes the referendum, said she believes the surge in votes is in part due to the fact that local elections in Matthews are very contentious this year. But even if that’s what’s driving people to the polls, it could still have an impact on the referendum — Rodriguez-McDowell said that 90% of what she hears from constituents in Matthews about the transit plan is negative.

Matthews Town Commissioner Ken McCool made similar observations.

“The mayoral race has really driven turnout, and I’m aware that a lot of the folks who are speaking to our poll greeters going into the early voting locations are speaking heavily against the referendum,” McCool said. “Overwhelmingly, people who are coming to vote are anti-referendum, and we’re looking at a pretty high turnout.”

Support for the referendum has been visible. It’s been endorsed by high-profile state and city leaders, influential political groups and the business community. The Yes for Meck campaign, as it’s called, is highly organized and well-funded, and it has used those resources to encourage people to vote. But opposition has quietly grown, too, with some Charlotte City Council members and neighborhood groups voicing their disapproval in recent weeks.

Even with surges in early voting, Larry Shaheen, a Republican attorney who is helping with the Yes for Meck campaign, said he’s “cautiously optimistic.”

“I believe that the early voting numbers favor the referendum,” Shaheen said. “But the only absolute certainty that we can pull from this until Election Night is that more people are participating, which is always a good thing.”

Referendums don’t often fail in Mecklenburg County, but they have before, even when many expected them to pass. Most recently, Mecklenburg voters rejected a quarter-cent tax increase for arts, parks and education in 2019, despite a strong campaign and widespread support from community leaders. There are a few reasons why that’s not a perfect comparison. While support for the referendum was better organized and better funded, the amount of money spent was much less than the Yes for Meck campaign this year. And, as WFAE’s Steve Harrison pointed out, the ballot language simply asked voters whether they approved an increase in the sales tax, without stating what that increase would be for. This year, it clearly states that the increase would fund roadways and public transportation.

Shaheen noted that the outcome of a referendum is notoriously difficult to poll or predict. That’s especially true in this case, because support and opposition to the referendum don’t fall neatly along partisan or ideological lines — turnout is up among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters alike.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if on election night, the early vote comes out, and it’s 52% against, because you just don’t know,” Shaheen said. “You do the best job with the methods you have, and you try to do everything you can to get people to vote. We could be turning out our opposition. We don’t know.”

What we do know is that in elections with lower turnout, as municipal elections generally have, an impassioned group is more likely to sway a result. There’s certainly passion about this referendum. The turnout surge may be particularly pronounced in Matthews, but it’s visible across Mecklenburg County as well, including in places like Davidson and Pineville, which do benefit from new rail construction under the plan. That suggests the passion may exist on more than just one side. It’s the one thing that the referendum’s supporters and opponents seem to agree on: that the outcome is far from guaranteed.

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