NC: Charlotte area rolls toward historic transit vote. Is there 2nd chance if it fails?

A plan to revamp the Charlotte region’s transportation system with billions of dollars for road, rail and bus projects would be in jeopardy if Mecklenburg residents vote down a sales tax increase to fund it this November.

If the sales tax referendum doesn’t pass, Mecklenburg County Commission Vice Chair Leigh Altman told The Charlotte Observer, “all bets are off.”

“We don’t know how or if or when we could resurrect the opportunity, and it would really set us back,” said Altman, a supporter of the referendum who represents the county on the Metropolitan Transit Commission.

Charlotte’s long-awaited transportation plan jump-started in 2024 after years of pushback from GOP leadership in Raleigh and hurdles associated with railroad tracks for the Red Line commuter rail.

The city struck a deal with Norfolk Southern for old tracks and joined Mecklenburg County and most of the county’s towns in signing off on draft legislation authorizing a sales tax referendum last year. Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham’s version of the bill, “The P.A.V.E. Act,” ultimately raced through the General Assembly this summer and gave county commissioners the authority to put the referendum on the November ballot.

Now, Mecklenburg voters will decide the fate of the referendum.

If it fails, its future would again be in the County Commission’s hands, the Charlotte Area Transit System said in a statement. The P.A.V.E Act, CATS added, “may have to be amended” since the timeline it lays out wouldn’t be met if the referendum doesn’t pass this year.

“If the referendum doesn’t pass this November, the Transit System Plan cannot be implemented,” CATS said. “CATS will also need to evaluate current spending associated with existing service to ensure that CATS continues to meet financial metrics. “

Mecklenburg County’s 2025 transportation referendum

The referendum on the November ballot will ask voters to support or reject 1% sales tax increase, from 7.25% to 8.25%.

CATS estimates the tax increase would generate about $19.4 billion over 30 years, with 40% of the new money designated for roads projects and 20% for the region’s bus system The other 40% would go to rail projects, including the Red Line to Lake Norman-area towns and a shortened Silver Line light rail from the airport to east Charlotte.

The transportation plan calls for projects including increased frequencies on the county’s 15 busiest bus routes to 15 minutes or less, expanded microtransit, two new rail lines and expansions of existing lines. The revamped public transit system would be led by a new regional authority.

The city of Charlotte said previously the “average” Mecklenburg County household would pay an additional $20 a month in sales tax if the increase was implemented, or an annual increase of $240. The same presentation estimated a “lower-income” household in the county would pay an additional $11 a month, or $132 in a year.

But the exact amount a resident would pay depends on their spending habits. “Qualifying food items” — which include many grocery items such as dairy products, meat and produce — are charged only a 2% sales tax rate. But other foods — including prepared food, soft drinks and candy — are subject to the full, potentially higher, sales tax rate of the county.

The Charlotte Regional Business Alliance is leading a multi-million dollar pro-referendum campaign, which picked up endorsements from Gov. Josh Stein and the influential Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. Supporters say the plan will relieve traffic congestion and improve the region’s infrastructure.

Opponents say a sales tax is regressive and question the decision to shorten the Silver Line.

Safety on transit also became part of the conversation about the referendum in recent weeks following the killing of Iryna Zarutska on the LYNX Blue Line in South End.

What happens to Charlotte’s transportation plan if referendum fails?

There is recent precedent for communities needing multiple tries to pass tax increases to fund transportation projects.

Voters in Nashville, Tennessee, rejected a referendum in 2018 that would’ve funded a light rail-centric plan, The Tennessean reported. But a reworked plan passed by a margin of 65.5% to 34.5% in 2024, according to Tennessee Lookout.

Charlotte City Council member Ed Driggs said it’s “not that uncommon” for similar referendums to fail the first time they’re on the ballot.

“My concern, if it does come to that, is that with the passage of time, the cost of the projects that are contemplated by the mobility plan goes up … The time frame in which we will get the benefit of those projects moves out further. And meanwhile, I think we’re going to see a deterioration in the quality of life in Charlotte,” said Driggs, who chairs the city’s transportation committee.

If the referendum didn’t pass, CATS and the city would “carry on” with projects already in the pipeline based on current funding levels, Driggs said. But, he predicted, “the goal would be to try again as soon as possible” to get the full transportation plan funded.

“Exactly what that entails would depend a little bit on the analysis of the outcome of the referendum, to gain a better understanding of why it hadn’t gotten more acceptance,” he said.

Cotham, the primary sponsor of the legislation authorizing the referendum, said in a statement that if the referendum fails and local leaders want to try again, the County Commission could authorize a new referendum adhering to the requirements in the law.

She added the law would also “require the City of Charlotte to pay for a study for transportation improvements around our airport.”

The P.A.V.E. Act says CATS must “develop and publish a comprehensive, long-term public transportation plan that specifically includes frequent, express public transportation connections between the center of the City of Charlotte and Charlotte-Douglas International Airport” within a year of a failed referendum.

Altman said moving forward with the major components of the transportation plan currently on the table is dependent on the sales tax increase’s approval, with funding from the current half-cent sales tax for transportation “fully expended providing the bus and rail service we have.”

“Everything that we’ve been talking about — with new rail and rolling out microtransit across the county and upgraded frequencies of buses and improved bus infrastructure and road improvements — none of that can occur if we don’t have a successful referendum,” she said.

How have past transportation, tax referendums fared?

Similar referendums faced mixed reactions from Mecklenburg voters in recent decades.

Mecklenburg County voters laid the groundwork for the county’s current public transit system when they voted 58% to 42% to approve a half-cent sales tax increase in 1998.

Voters chose to keep the tax in place by a margin of 70% to 30% in 2007 after opponents successfully petitioned to get a referendum repealing it on the ballot.

But Mecklenburg residents voted down referendums in 2014 and 2019 that would’ve raised the county’s sales tax by a quarter-cent to generate more revenue for the arts, schools, libraries and parks and recreation.

Nationwide, the majority of pro-transit ballot measures passed in 2024, according to the American Public Transportation Association, a nonprofit advocacy group.

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