IL: Transit fiscal cliff much smaller than projected, but severe CTA cuts still expected next year

The budget gap looming over the CTA, Metra and Pace next year is about $200 million — much smaller than previously estimated, regional transportation officials said Friday.

Significant service cuts are still expected on the CTA beginning in the middle of next year if state lawmakers don’t green-light additional funding, officials said, and the region’s projected transit funding shortfall would balloon back up to $790 million in 2027 without new revenue.

For months, the Regional Transportation Authority said the CTA, Metra and Pace were collectively facing a budget gap of $771 million next year that could force them to cut service on the region’s bus routes and train lines by up to 40%.

Now, the RTA says the projected shortfall is less than half that number, largely due to an increase in sales tax revenue.

A proposed regionwide fare increase of 10% to take effect in February will also take the edge off, officials said, as would various cost savings. At the CTA, the 10% fare increase would lead to an extra $30 to $35 million on hand, acting President Nora Leerhsen said at an RTA meeting Friday.

The meeting took place shortly before state lawmakers — who failed to pass transit funding during their spring legislative session — are scheduled to head back to Springfield to try again later this month.

RTA board Chairman Kirk Dillard had charged the leaders of the CTA, Metra and Pace to present specific proposed service cuts at the meeting, as RTA board members fretted that without specifics about which train lines or bus routes were on the chopping block, lawmakers wouldn’t feel pressure to act.

“The goal of today’s meeting is to demonstrate the urgency in addressing a funding and reform solution,” Dillard said at Friday’s meeting.

But the significantly revised budget estimates announced less than two weeks before veto session prompted frustration from lawmakers, labor groups and transit advocates, some of whom suggested the new numbers would do just the opposite.

In Springfield, an emergency is often the most powerful motivator, and it’s likely the announcement of a significantly smaller shortfall could take the pressure off legislators as they work toward a funding solution.

State Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado, a Chicago Democrat who has led the push for transit reform and funding in the House, said in a statement that “the RTA cannot be trusted to appropriately plan and communicate.”

“Solving for the fiscal cliff through cuts, fare increases, and a Band-Aid is not solving for it at all,” said Senate Democrat Ram Villivalam of Chicago, who led the effort for transit funding and reform in the Senate.

“As with any major public policy that impacts millions of people, kicking the can down the road should not be the option that is pursued,” Villivalam said.

The RTA pushed back on accusations it was kicking the can.

“I want to be very clear about any perception that the RTA is trying to downplay the seriousness of what we are facing,” Dillard said in a statement. “Our sincere hope is that Springfield acts on reform and funding as soon as possible.”

Asked about the timing of the revised projections after the meeting, Dillard said he was “surprised” by the pushback. “They ask us for revised fiscal cliff numbers, and we’re just providing what the legislature themself asked us to do,” he said.

At the meeting, leaders of the CTA, Metra and Pace gave presentations detailing what their budgets and service levels could look like in 2026 and beyond without more state funding.

“The service cuts we may be forced to make beginning in 2026 will be the single-largest transit service cut in the modern history of the Chicago Transit Authority,” Leerhsen told the RTA board.

The agency is looking at cutting up to a quarter of its service next year, she said — a lower proportion than the 40% initially estimated by the RTA, but one that would still have massive implications for CTA riders.

Leerhsen declined to provide information about which bus routes or train lines were on the chopping block. “We need to be careful about how we describe this,” she said.

But next year, Leerhsen said, nearly 40 of the CTA’s bus routes could be eliminated, and “at least” an entire rail line could shut down. Up to 10 train stations could close to save on staffing and maintenance costs, she said, and others could have entrances shuttered.

Early morning or late evening service could be eliminated, Leerhsen said, possibly leading to service that operates only from 6 a.m. to 9 or 10 p.m.

“Service frequency may be significantly reduced, resulting in fewer buses and trains coming each hour,” she said.

Layoffs at the CTA could take place in the second half of next year, Leerhsen said, and the agency may ultimately be forced to lay off up to 1,800 employees.

Metra is not expected to make service cuts in 2026, and Pace isn’t expecting to make cuts to its suburban bus service next year.

Pace, however, also operates federally-mandated paratransit for the entire Chicago region. Money for a popular new ride-share program — which allows paratransit users to call Ubers in lieu of using the traditional paratransit service — would run out next spring, Executive Director Melinda Metzger said.

Metra CEO Jim Derwinski said the commuter rail service could be forced to reduce service by up to 40% beginning in 2027 if a funding solution isn’t worked out.

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