NC: Will Charlotte light rail stabbing hurt transportation referendum’s chances?

A murder that captured national attention could affect Charlotte’s efforts to overhaul its transportation system because the multibillion-dollar plan is now in voters’ hands, a political expert says.

Iryna Zarutska, 23, was fatally stabbed Aug. 22 on the LYNX Blue Line light rail in South End, police say. DeCarlos Brown Jr. is charged with first-degree murder and a federal transit crime in the case.

Video of the Ukrainian refugee’s killing went viral on social media, raising questions about safety on public transit and triggering political conversations from the White House to Charlotte.

It comes as Mecklenburg County voters weigh whether to back a sales tax increase to pay for rail, road and bus projects later this year. The region also faces the threat of losing out on federal transportation dollars amid investigations.

Those issues are likely to reshape the campaigns around the sales tax referendum and impact its chances, UNC Charlotte political scientist Eric Heberlig said.

“Anytime you have bad news on a particular topic, that’s going to make people think about it in a different way than they did before,” he said.

Transportation referendum on November ballot

November’s ballot referendum asks Mecklenburg voters whether they support a 1% sales tax increase to fund a variety of transportation projects, including the Red Line from uptown to Lake Norman-area towns.

The P.A.V.E. Act, which passed the state legislature this summer, lays out how the new revenue can be spent: a cap of 40% of the money to rail projects, 40% to road projects and 20% to bus improvements. It also establishes a new transit authority to govern the region’s public transportation system.

The Charlotte Area Transit System projects the tax increase would generate $19.4 billion over 30 years. Charlotte estimates the sales tax increase would cost the “average” Mecklenburg County household an additional $240 per year, though that number would vary based on a family’s spending habits.

Supporters, led by the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, plan to pump millions of dollars into a campaign in favor of the referendum.

Will light rail stabbing affect transportation referendum vote?

The stabbing “makes it harder for supporters to get their positive message out” about the referendum, Heberlig said.

“The news about crime is dominating people’s information and their thinking about light rail in Charlotte,” he said.

“A key variable,” Heberlig added, is how much the stabbing story still resonates with voters come Election Day in November.

“Stories can last for a very short period of time before our attention span moves on to something else,” he said. “But something like crime, and particularly one that’s a case that has touched people’s emotions, that’s much less likely to fade from people’s perceptions in six weeks.”

CLT Alliance CEO Robert McCutcheon told The Charlotte Observer his organization has primarily focused on supporting efforts to improve public safety in the immediate aftermath of the stabbing.

“The referendum is something that right now is so relevant to be thinking about, how a generational investment in our region’s transportation (system) can even go further to help improve public safety,” he said.

Asked if he’s concerned the killing will impact the referendum’s chances on the ballot, McCutcheon said Zarutska’s death was “a senseless and tragic incident” that requires attentiveness to community reaction and needs.

“It doesn’t change the importance of the referendum and this need to improve our transportation infrastructure in the future,” he said. “And it also emphasizes the ability to put more funding behind security.”

Sustain Charlotte, another major advocate for the referendum, said in a statement following the stabbing that Zarutska’s death was “tragic and senseless,” but “light rail remains one of the safest and most reliable ways to travel in our growing city.”

“In nearly 18 years of service, the line has carried more than 90 million passengers without an onboard fatality until now. By contrast, the danger on our streets is tragically routine,” the group said, going on to reference traffic fatality statistics.

Charlotte City Council member Malcolm Graham told reporters after a news conference last week he sees conversations about public safety and the referendum as “two separate issues.”

“Obviously they combine at some point, but I think the election needs to stand on its own merit,” he said.

Action NC Political Director Robert Dawkins, one of the referendum’s most vocal opponents, wrote in his newsletter on the anti-referendum campaign that Zarutska’s “senseless murder” is just one example of safety issues on public transit. He cited violence on buses and at the Charlotte Transit Center.

“This is not the first person to be murdered on CATS property in the past year and speaks to a systemic failure that needs to be corrected immediately,” he said.

Would transportation referendum improve safety?

The pro-referendum campaign will likely have to adjust its messaging in the wake of the stabbing, Heberlig predicted.

“Before you focus on what communities are served, the economic development aspects of it, convenience and transportation,” he said. “Now, you have to at least build in a component of public safety into that messaging.”

Talk about funding for transit safety already came up during a news conference following the stabbing.

“If we’re able to proceed with our mobility plan, the new authority is going to have its own police force. It’s going to be a whole different security situation on public transportation if we get the resources and are able to proceed with our plan,” said Charlotte City Council member Ed Driggs at a gathering last week of Republican leaders.

McCutcheon said telling voters about the potential benefits for transit safety will be part of the pro-referendum campaign’s efforts to educate voters about the overall transportation plan.

“There’s no doubt that that will be something that we’ll want to underline,” he said.

Federal cuts

The light rail stabbing could create additional challenges for transit funding beyond the sales tax referendum.

In addition to the revenue generated from a sales tax increase, Charlotte’s transportation plan also calls for $5.9 billion in “additional funding and revenue,” including federal grants and Federal Transit Administration funds.

Since Zarutska’s killing, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has threatened to withhold federal dollars from Charlotte, pending an investigation into the Charlotte Area Transit System.

“I guarantee all your viewers that if I find what I think I’m going to find they’re not going to have your federal tax dollars going to their public transportation system. Zero. None. Nada,” Duffy previously told Fox News host Sean Hannity.

The U.S. Department of Transportation on Sept. 10 gave Charlotte 15 days to detail CATS’s plans to reduce crime and fare evasion on the transit system.

McCutcheon said it’s “almost impossible for me to speculate” on the fate of federal funding but that the money generated by the sales tax increase alone would be “massively significant.”

“It really should not affect the willingness to put this referendum in place and get it passed in November, because this opportunity is truly generational,” he said.

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