CA: Bay Area transit ridership is still hurting -- but there are bright spots

More than five years after the pandemic dramatically reshaped commuting patterns, the Bay Area's largest transit systems have yet to recover to pre-pandemic ridership levels as the agencies work to adjust to new passenger habits.

San Francisco's Muni system, which transports the most passengers of any Bay Area transit authority each month, has come the closest to its pre-pandemic ridership, with more than 75% of its 2019 numbers. AC Transit, the East Bay's largest bus operator, has also recovered about 75% of its transit.

But BART and Caltrain, which were both essential for getting workers to offices in downtown San Francisco or on the Peninsula before the dawn of hybrid and remote work, are not faring as well. This year, Caltrain has recovered about 60% of its pre-pandemic ridership, while BART has recovered less than half.

Ridership numbers across the four systems have steadily staggered up toward pre-pandemic levels over the last two years as more and more workers head back into the office — at least part of the time. Reliable, five-days-a-week commuting made up a significant portion of pre-pandemic ridership across systems, making the difference hard to make up in a hybrid working world.

And many commuters, especially those who don't have to face traffic five days a week, are relying more often on their cars than on transit, according to a recent survey from the Bay Area Council.

This has left the Bay Area's largest agencies grappling with how to close budget deficits while cutting as little service as possible. Muni's deficit comes to some $322 million; BART's threatens to be about $376 million by 2027. Administrators and lawmakers still do not have firm plans for addressing them.

In the face of such challenges, each of the four agencies has tweaked its offerings, including shifting service to more neighborhood-oriented lines, adjusting schedules and revamping safety measures.

There are bright spots: across all systems, weekend traffic has recovered best. The agencies have attributed the resilience of the weekend to more people using public transportation for travel outside of work, a pattern bolstered by large events like concerts, sporting events and even protests — and the agencies have been marketing themselves to residents as a reliable option for such travel.

Weekend service on Muni, for example, has increased to about 86% of what it was pre-pandemic, outpacing the 70% recovery of weekday traffic.

And BART, though struggling more than other agencies, has seen more than 60% of its weekend ridership return in recent months, compared to less than 45% of its weekday ridership. In May, the agency hit 80% of its pre-pandemic weekend numbers.

For no system has the weekend become more important than for Caltrain. Ridership on the Peninsula's commuter line has soared past pre-pandemic levels so far this year as the electrification of trains has brought faster, more frequent service.

"Caltrain's new half-hourly weekend service offers a convenient and affordable way to explore everything the Bay Area has to offer, and we're delighted to see so many people taking advantage of it," said Caltrain spokesperson Dan Lieberman.