CA: Survey: SMART tax renewal gaining backers

A new survey indicates growing voter support for a Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit sales tax renewal in 2026.

Overall support has increased from 65% to 69% in the past year, according to 842 responses from likely voters in Marin and Sonoma counties, according to a poll conducted in March. The increase clears the two-thirds threshold needed for the measure to pass.

Two-thirds of respondents supported a proposed renewal with no expiration, while about 73% approve of a tax extension when it includes a 30-year sunset, pollsters said.

The survey has about a plus-minus 4.9% margin of error, said Dave Metz, a public opinion consultant for Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit. Metz presented the results of the survey at the SMART board meeting on Wednesday.

"When you're trying to get a two-third vote and every vote counts, that additional bump could be helpful from a public policy perspective," Metz said. "And so our recommendation would be if you choose to move forward to strongly consider including that 30-year sunset."

The agency's quarter-cent sales tax, which generates about $51 million annually, expires in 2029. A renewal measure in 2020 failed to reach the two-thirds threshold.

Surveys conducted this year and in 2024 were performed in response to a Marin County Civil Grand Jury report in 2023. The report said the agency needs to convince Marin and Sonoma voters to support a tax renewal to keep it from financial collapse.

Overall, about 67% of the survey respondents said there is a "great need" or "some need" for additional funding to support SMART, up from 54% last year. Those seeing a "great need" jumped from 29% to 43%, the results show.

"I think there's just been a lot of public communication about the sort of fiscal cliff," Metz said. "And that has led to this higher degree of recognition, which is obviously a good thing. If people think you need the money, they're more likely to have a reason to vote for it."

The results also showed that women, at 73%, are more likely to vote yes on the measure than men, at 64%. Voters under the age of 50 were more likely to vote yes than older residents, with support from 50% of the 18-to-29 age group and 45% of the 30-to-39 age group.

Renters, at 79%, are more likely to vote yes than homeowners, at 65%.

People who have used SMART trains are more likely to vote yes, the survey shows. Regular riders gave the service an 84% "excellent" or "good" approval rating.

"So more people ride the train, there'll be more positive perceptions, and that'll be a good thing overall," Metz said.

Respondents placed the greatest priority on using funds to maintain clean and safe trains, reduce traffic and provide public transportation. The measure appeared to be more compelling when voters were told it would extend the tax but not increase the amount.

A measure on a 2026 ballot would have about 69% support in Sonoma County and 68% support in Marin County, according to the data.

Metz said that overall, SMART's messaging should focus on its funding needs, emphasize that it isn't a tax increase and highlight the rail service's growing ridership.

Eddy Cumins, the SMART general manager, said the agency needs to communicate to the public that its tax will expire in March 2029.

"And I want to be very clear, there is no state or federal resources to fill this funding gap," Cumins said. "If we are going to continue to provide SMART service, we have to extend this sales tax to increase our chances."

Cumins said the board needs to determine whether to go to the ballot in June or November. He recommended the board approve a resolution calling the election well in advance. He plans to have a resolution for approval by end of January if the measure is planned on the June 2026 ballot and by end of June 2026 for the November 2026 ballot.

Cumins recommended staff conduct another survey leading up to the election.

Cumins also gave an overview of the draft full text of the measure. The text focused its messaging on continuing to build ridership, preserving the rail line, relieving traffic and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, modernizing equipment and train cars and providing oversight and accountability of tax dollars. It included a draft expenditure plan.

Cumins said the agency needs to communicate that "extending this tax would protect the community's investment and make sure this rail line is around for future generations."

The agency should not underestimate critics of the measure, he said.

"I'm absolutely thrilled with the survey results we heard today, but keep in mind, the opposition only has to convince 34% of voters to vote no, and they could defeat this measure," Cumins said. "I think we have a great chance to be successful, but we should not take anything for granted."

The survey results and staff report are at sonomamarintrain.org/bod.

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