CA: Marin Transit cost estimates balloon for electric bus transition

The cost for Marin Transit to replace its gas-powered fleet with zero-emission buses by 2040 is estimated to be around $40 million higher than previous projections, agency staff said.

In 2023, the cost for the transition was estimated at $73.4 million, according to the agency’s zero-emission bus rollout plan. That estimate has increased to about $112 million because of uncertainty about tariffs for vehicles, parts and necessary infrastructure, said Anna Penoyar, capital projects manager.

“We are seeing cost increases to all vehicle types and construction estimates, not just ZEBs or ZEB infrastructure,” Penoyar said, referring to zero-emission buses.

“While the district cannot at this time directly tie any of the cost increases to tariffs, we have heard anecdotally from manufacturers that parts suppliers for buses are hesitant to commit to long-term pricing due to potential tariff impacts and/or are raising their prices to account for any impact of tariffs,” Penoyar said.

Purchases of zero-emission buses by the agency using federal funds are subject to the Federal Transit Administration’s “Buy America” requirements, Penoyar said.

“So, many items would only be indirectly impacted by market effects of tariffs,” Penoyar said.

Marin Transit serves more than 3 million passengers each year through 19 bus and shuttle routes, paratransit services and other transportation programs.

The agency is working to replace its gas-powered buses with all-electric or other no-emission equivalents by the state’s 2040 target.

By 2026, 25% of new purchases must be zero-emissions vehicles, and by 2029, all new purchases must be zero-emissions.

In 2023, the agency reported that it would cost around $68.1 million to purchase 60 standard battery electric buses and associated infrastructure. It was expected to cost about $5.3 million for 12 battery-electric medium-duty shuttles and infrastructure.

Today, the district has a total fleet of 97 vehicles. That includes 68 buses. Of those, there are six active electric buses and one retired zero-emission bus.

The active fleet also includes 38 diesel-hybrid buses, 11 diesel narrow-bodied and high-floor buses and 13 medium-duty shuttles. The paratransit and demand-response fleet is made up of 29 vans and shuttles.

New projections suggest it could cost about $108.3 million for 57 standard battery-electric buses and infrastructure, and $3.7 million for five medium-duty shuttles and infrastructure.

Penoyar said there are other considerations for officials to keep in mind.

The agency’s heavy-duty vehicles have a 12-year lifecycle. The shuttles have a seven-year lifecycle, and light-duty vehicles, used for paratransit and demand response, have a five-year lifecycle.

Additionally, staff haven’t yet identified a suitable electric replacement for the narrow-bodied buses that serve rural routes in West Marin.

With this information, Marin Transit is prioritizing replacing its shuttles first. Staff are waiting to replace the narrow-bodied vehicles to see how technology may improve.

The agency’s board adopted a resolution at its meeting on Sept. 8 to update its zero-emission bus rollout plan to reflect the new estimates and other changes.

The new rollout plan also reflects newly planned and upgraded infrastructure that will support the electric fleet.

At 600 Rush Landing Road in Novato, the agency is planning to park and charge 24 vehicles. Another 45 bus parking stalls, charging equipment and a solar canopy are planned at 3010 and 3020 Kerner Blvd. A $3.67 million contract was awarded in December to begin construction.

That project is related to but different from the larger-scale plan for an electric bus hub at the nearby 3.5-acre lot at 1075 Francisco Blvd. East, an estimated $46.7 million project supported by a $31.5 million federal grant.

The transition plan includes a fuel analysis showing the difference in costs per mile for battery-electric buses versus other vehicles.

Some of those electric buses are charged at a Golden Gate Transit facility, which has a traditional rate structure, and higher cost of $3.31 per mile. In comparison, Marin Transit’s charging facility at Rush Landing Road has separately metered charging and an EV rate structure. Battery-electric vehicles charged there cost about 50 cents per mile.

Penoyar said the agency is conferring with utilities to ensure that the grid has the capacity to charge the transit vehicles.

Marin Transit is already participating in Pacific Gas and Electric Co.’s electric vehicle fleet program to bring extra capacity to the agency’s transit charging locations. The agency is also in discussions with MCE, the regional clean energy provider, about the rate structure and ensuring the greenest energy is available to power the fleet.

Marin County Supervisor Mary Sackett, a member of the Marin Transit board, said she wants to delve into that issue.

“As an MCE board member, I can help further that conversation or be part of it,” Sackett said.

Supervisor Eric Lucan, the president of the board, said he has been surprised that public transportation agencies are charged at the same rate as, for example, a Tesla charger station.

“There is no separate charging structure for public agencies that are providing public transit,” Lucan said. “That’s a big statewide issue.”

Lucan said he sees potential for agencies to partner to make the case for lower transit rates.

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