Environmental advocates who support a state mandate that would convert all buses operated by New York City Transit (NYC Transit) to electric power need a reality check.
NYC Transit, Manhattan and Bronx Surface Operating Authority and MTA Bus have a combined fleet of almost 5,800 buses. The estimated cost of an electric bus can range from $1 to $1.4 million per vehicle. The price depends on if it is a standard 40 foot, articulated or over the road coach model. To replace 100 percent of the fleet would cost more than $6 billion in 2020 dollars. This does not include the cost of in-house MTA NYC Transit staff, who will manage the procurement process from start to finish. MTA NYC Transit may also hire independent third-party consultants to assist in the inspection and acceptance on the production line at the bus manufacturers plant. Inflation over time will only result in a higher cost. A final price tag over 20 to 30 years to replace all 5,800 buses with electric powered buses could easily reach $7 billion or more.
The price also requires modifications to each of the 29 bus garages to accommodate electric buses. NYC Transit and Manhattan Bronx Surface Operating Authority operate 21 garages, MTA Bus took over the NYCDOT subsidized franchised bus operators in 2005 and 2006. These included Steinway Bus and Queens Transit, (which combined to become Queens Surface Bus Corporation) along with Green Bus, Jamaica Bus and Triboro Coach. They all provided service in Queens, Command Bus (previously Pioneer Bus) ran in Brooklyn along with New York Bus and Liberty Lines Bronx Express, operating primarily express routes from the Bronx to Manhattan, has eight garages.
No one knows how long and at what cost facility modifications to accommodate installation of electrical power plug ins would be. There is also the need to upgrade some bus depots that are located in flood-prone areas. Between design, engineering, construction and other costs including work with Con Edison and the New York Power Authority, these costs which could easily reach several hundred million are above and beyond purchasing of electric buses.
Buses have a useful life of 15 years. The MTA would wait until each bus currently in revenue service reaches this retirement eligibility age before purchasing a replacement bus. Taking into consideration hundreds of replacement buses already ordered and under contract with vendors that will be built and delivered between 2020 and 2022. In theory, the earliest that the MTA could have a 100-percent electric bus fleet would be 2037.
Using some of the $1.5 billion in annual Federal Transit Administration funding to pay for electric buses comes with having to follow federal procurement procedures. This would conflict with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's call for all state agencies and authorities to "Buy New York." Not all American bus manufacturers may have plants in New York state.
If the MTA NYC Transit were really serious about going 100 percent electric, it would be reflected in the MTA 2020 - 2040 Twenty Year Capital Needs Plan. Gov. Cuomo and the MTA promised that this document would be released by December 2019. It is now one year late. I suspect that the MTA is sitting on it until the document receives the blessing of Gov. Cuomo before going public.
The project would also be included within the New York state-sponsored Metropolitan Transportation Planning Organization (locally known as the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council) Short Five Year and Twenty Long Range Planning documents, as well.
There are other alternatives such as clean diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG) or methanol to consider. Nassau Inter County Express Bus provides service under contract to Nassau County on Long Island with a fleet of 288 buses all fueled by CNG. They have made a positive contribution for years in helping keep the air clean. As we move away from dependency on nuclear and coal-powered production, remember that creation of electricity other than hydro electric, solar or wind farm is not necessarily clean.
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Larry Penner is a transportation advocate, historian and writer who previously worked for the Federal Transit Administration Region 2 New York Office. This included the development, review, approval and oversight for billions in capital projects and programs for the MTA, NYC Transit, Long Island Rail Road, Metro-North Railroad, MTA Bus, NYC DOT, NJ Transit, along with 30 other transit agencies in New York and New Jersey.
