In the face of adversity and hardship, silver linings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic are gladly seized upon. Fewer cars on the road mean fewer emissions, so the skies are clearer and car accidents are reduced, which makes the streets safer. What if autonomous vehicles could keep it this way?
The answer is physically distanced transport.
While overall car sales are down during the current outbreak, it will take a lot to break the consumer dream of the automobile and self-determined travel. Considering the nature of COVID-19 concerns, conventional communal transport looks more at risk. In Beijing, well on its way past lockdown restrictions, gridlock contrasts subways operating at approximately half of previously normal levels. Data from Apple Maps for 27 cities around the world show similar trends for driving over mass transit as cities come back online.
Developments in autonomous vehicles continue and could bridge the emerging consumer demand between private transportation and health and safety concerns. Just before the pandemic, California had permitted a broader range of autonomous vehicles to be tested including mid-size trucks and vans, and more than 60 companies have permits to test autonomous vehicles on the state’s public roads (with a safety driver onboard). Testing is happening throughout the U.S. in dozens of states and in multiple countries around the world. For example, in 2019, Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo and General Motor Co.’s Cruise Automation logged more than two million road test miles. Data acquired has allowed autonomous vehicle companies to take advantage of advanced simulation testing during the pandemic, recording many more millions of virtual hours daily. Prospects for greater progress on many fronts are promising once COVID-19 restrictions lift.
Physically distanced travel: powered by smart grids, 5G and data centers
If the world emerges from COVID-19 with greater resolve to deliver on the promise of a safer and cleaner environment, autonomous vehicle development could be central for city planners who want to maintain vibrant economic and social centers, while avoiding the congestion of cars and people in these spaces.
Physically distanced travel through fleets of app-hailed autonomous vehicles could maintain last-mile transport of people across cities’ hotspots, as well as provide package delivery services at the same time. Specialized screening and sanitation controls could be designed into this new form of transport as health concerns will prevail, and, as an additional bonus, the new driverless fleets will also eliminate driver-error and accidents (more than 90 percent of car accidents are caused by human error). Such a city-level adoption would, in turn, rapidly prove the technology leading to the mass adoption of autonomous vehicles for commuting.
The “New” New Deal: infrastructure for the autonomous vehicle future
This future is closer than we think but is reliant on new infrastructure systems beyond the control of the auto industry. Policy decisions, including incentives to invest in enabling infrastructure as seen with the advancement of renewable energy, are key to this safer and cleaner future. A previous survey by Black & Veatch in 2018 (2018 Strategic Directions: Smart Cities & Utilities Report), showed that policy is the most influential factor for autonomous vehicle development. However, the same survey shows a low awareness among city planners about how to implement and scale this new transportation.
The COVID-19 economic crossroad the world faces will require a new vision for the future from policymakers. Whereas we were rescued from previous economic shocks through huge schemes that built new roads and bridges, pouring more concrete will not lay the foundation for a new sustainable future. The situation calls for greater imagination for large scale investment to spur spending and growth.
Reframing the conversation of autonomous vehicles to physically distanced transport broadens the understanding from the component level (the autonomous vehicle) to the system level (infrastructure that supports the demand for safer and greener travel). It also helps capture the public understanding of why driverless vehicles are needed. Smart electric grids, 5G, more data centers at the edge and rapidly evolving health screening and prevention systems will pave the streets of tomorrow.
Developments of a more flexible generation and load-bearing grid must continue. Electric power – alongside fuel cells – will fuel this new generation of vehicles (both electric and fuel vehicles have been less impacted than conventional vehicle sales during the pandemic), and advances in distributed energy will ably manage the energy demands of a new generation of cars and fleets. Investment in the data economy must also continue. The system must be prepared to handle the staggering amounts of data necessary to move autonomous vehicles from point A to point B; one autonomous vehicle can produce up to two terabytes of data daily. 5G deployment becomes crucial and must advance rapidly while progress in the deployment of the Internet of Things and building more data centers closer to the edge to handle more proximal processing required for autonomous vehicles must not waiver.
Then, the system must be made more secure and the physically distanced passenger must enter transport environments that are healthy and safe.
Building the future of transport will disrupt the auto industry further, but likely save it and it could save commerce and livelihood downtown too. It will take bravery, some engineering genius and a dream of how to create a more sustainable future.
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Maryline Daviaud Lewett is director of business development for Black & Veatch’s Transformative Technologies business. She is responsible for sales and partnerships in distributed infrastructure, sustainable transportation and fleets, engineering, procurement and construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure networks, fuel cell vehicle filling infrastructure networks, and behind-the-meter energy storage. She holds a Sustainability Management MBA from the Presidio Graduate School in San Francisco.
