The smaller market for diesel multiple units will stagnate in the next five years as the current high market volumes will decrease in Eastern and Western Europe. The weak transport growth on secondary lines and planned electrifications have a dampening effect on procurements. Starting from a low level, other selected markets will grow considerably. Main drivers are the replacement of old vehicles and the upgrade of commuter networks. New vehicles in Asia or the CIS will become more expensive in the future because of the usage of foreign components to increase quality. A trend towards hybrid and battery technology is appearing in Japan and will become important throughout the world in the medium to long term.
Most important manufacturers are Bombardier, Stadler, Alstom as well as Japanese companies. Although most manufacturers are still very active in their domestic regions, deliveries to other regions have increased. There is a trend towards co-locating production. For example, Siemens and Stadler are currently establishing new plants in the CIS. SCI Verkehr is observing a clear increase of maintenance contracts for manufacturers in the after-sales market.
The market study "Diesel Multiple Units/Electric Multiple Units – Global Market Trends" is available in German from July and in English from August 2013 at SCI Verkehr GmbH.