Following an interim low, the global demand for diesel locomotives has recovered well and will grow by 4 percent p.a. up to 2017.
In its latest MultiClient study “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends,” SCI Verkehr GmbH has estimated a current market volume for new diesel locomotives of about €4.8 billion p.a. More than 85 percent of this is accounted for by mainline locomotives.
SCI Verkehr expects positive momentum from regions such as Africa/Middle East, South America and Australia which have so far been of less importance. New procurements will mainly be driven by the development of new raw material resources and the resulting upgrades of mine-port transport services. However, deliveries in Europe are declining and will only recover slightly in the next few years. SCI Verkehr expects a consolidation of the manufacturer landscape as there are considerable overcapacities at the moment.
The worldwide market volume for diesel locomotives amounts to just short of €17 billion. A major part of this (more than 70 percent) is generated in the after-sales market, which comprises repair and maintenance costs of the roughly 120,000 diesel locomotives operated worldwide. The average fleet age is 26 years. In Europe, most of the diesel locomotives are above 30 years old and therefore not state-of-the-art.