One way to gauge the future of transit in the U.S., as we head into 2008, is to observe some key trends from the last few years. Continued industry advancements have given us good reason to be optimistic about transit’s future. 2008 is shaping up to be another robust year for transit. What key outcomes are we likely to see?
Ridership, an important barometer for the industry, keeps growing. The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) reports that 78 million more trips were taken on public transportation during the first six months of 2007, compared to the first six months of 2006. 2006 was already a milestone, with more than 10 billion trips on mass transit. Americans are using commuter rail, light rail, subways and buses in record numbers to get to work or school, or to perform personal errands. 2008 will see ridership at an all-time high, with continued growth across transit modes.
Voters continue to support local ballot measures to fund transportation improvements, and specifically new transit investments. This November, many public transportation-related ballot measures were passed, with wins in North Carolina, Virginia, Utah, Michigan and Ohio among them. From 2000 to 2005, 33 states approved ballot measures worth more than $70 million with a 70 percent voter approval rate. Expect support to remain strong for these types of initiatives in 2008.
Major transit improvements of all types are underway around the country — renewal of facilities and rolling stock, extensions for commuter rail, light rail, and bus rapid transit and investment in new systems — and the trend will continue through 2008 as many new lines and facilities are completed and opened for business.
Many public- and private-sector entities, including many of our transit organizations, have gotten on board and begun greening their operations. New operating technologies and facilities that help conserve energy and reduce emissions are being developed according to sustainability guidelines. Look to 2008 as a year in which many more transit agencies expand their commitment to sustainability and environmentally friendly business practices.
Transit agencies also face more complex challenges concerning system operation and management — more service delivery options supported by new technologies and varying project delivery methods to meet schedule and budget priorities. More serious exploration of these options will continue in 2008, leading to more innovative project implementation methods.
In 2005, the federal government made a major investment in our nation’s surface transportation system through the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), which expires in 2009. As we work together as an industry in 2008, some key questions will need to be addressed: What will the next bill be like? How much support will there be for transit? What about the nature and role of transit far into the future, which APTA is addressing through TransitVision 2050? The answers to these questions may depend, at least in part, on developments in mass transit in the new year.
While the progress transit has made over the past decade is extraordinary, we must also recognize that our investment in transit is woefully inadequate. Infrastructure that shows signs of strain and deterioration, fuel prices spiraling ever higher, debilitating roadway congestion and communities seeking more sensible mobility solutions are all a call for bold action in 2008. Are we up to the task?
Biography
Paul Skoutelas is a Senior Vice President and Transit Market Leader at PB Americas. He provides advisory services to PB’s clients on a wide range of transit issues. Joining PB after successful tenures as chief executive officer at two of the most dynamic public transportation agencies in the U.S. — the Port of Authority of Allegheny County, Penn., and the Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority (LYNX), he has served on boards or committees for such transportation organizations as the American Public Transportation Association, National Transit Institute, Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, and the Transit Cooperative Research Program.
