Comments on: Dump the Pump http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/ Mass Transit's editor, Fred Jandt, speaks weekly on critical issues facing the public transportation industry. Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:21:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Gunnar Henrioulle http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-417 Gunnar Henrioulle Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:04:28 +0000 http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-417 Let's say the Super Giant Oilfield in Mexico, Cantarell, goes into terminal depletion faster than predicted- in fact that is happening. Over the next year or so, the Mexican oil exports to the US fall off by a million or so bbls/day. Meanwhile the Chinese, India, rest of world continues inexorable growth of demand, USA too, about 1%. Now we are looking at a sizeable decline in supply, in a worldwide depletion rate that is now, in 2007, barely able to keep up with demand. It seems time to get people like Matthew Simmons, Matt Savinar, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, & Colin Campbell in one room at one time- say the next APTA convention.... The game of shuffling ridership statistics vs. fuel prices vs. inflation rate, etc. goes out the window milliseconds after the Feds announce gas rationing, say 5 gallons/week per licensed driver, Or 10? But it seems a certainty that gas rationing is headed our way. If you do not live close to work, walking distance to the shopping mall, church, school, family & friends, you will be affected. Before gas rationing is a good time to take stock of where you live, where your parents or children live. Life comes at you fast; something extraordinary is afoot! Take the time to research the gentlemen listed above; see website "lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" & share with planning staff & college students. Personal mobility will be impacted in a negative way as we slide bass ackward into a motor fuel supply crisis. What about victuals, necessities of life, perishables from the market? Teamsters, not trains, deliver the goods to the stores, true. It is important to recollect that for over 100 years, trains did in fact do a much larger percentage of goods moving, and will have to again, as energy allocation cuts into trucking fuel. Just a heads up, for toll road investors. Maybe railway tunnels and new rail corridors will be a safer Oil Interregnum investment! The Association of American Railroads used to have an outreach program for middle-school age students in US Schools. This program ended about the time the Freeways were made Federal, about 1956. At that time, Gen. James A Van Fleet wrote a transportation manual, a booklet titled "RAIL TRANSPORT & THE WINNING OF WARS", in which he warned policymakers of the dangers of relying overmuch on highway based economics at the expense of the rail network in place (in 1956). Inevitable overdependence on foreigh oil was a key element in his thesis... Van Fleet's book can be obtained from the Association of American Railroads in D.C. It is eerily contemporary- Let’s say the Super Giant Oilfield in Mexico, Cantarell, goes into terminal depletion faster than predicted- in fact that is happening. Over the next year or so, the Mexican oil exports to the US fall off by a million or so bbls/day. Meanwhile the Chinese, India, rest of world continues inexorable growth of demand, USA too, about 1%.

Now we are looking at a sizeable decline in supply, in a worldwide depletion rate that is now, in 2007, barely able to keep up with demand. It seems time to get people like Matthew Simmons, Matt Savinar, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, & Colin Campbell in one room at one time- say the next APTA convention…. The game of shuffling ridership statistics vs. fuel prices vs. inflation rate, etc. goes out the window milliseconds after the Feds announce gas rationing, say 5 gallons/week per licensed driver, Or 10? But it seems a certainty that gas rationing is headed our way.

If you do not live close to work, walking distance to the shopping mall, church, school, family & friends, you will be affected. Before gas rationing is a good time to take stock of where you live, where your parents or children live. Life comes at you fast; something extraordinary is afoot! Take the time to research the gentlemen listed above; see website
“lifeaftertheoilcrash.net” & share with planning staff & college students.

Personal mobility will be impacted in a negative way as we slide bass ackward into a motor fuel supply crisis. What about victuals, necessities of life, perishables from the market? Teamsters, not trains, deliver the goods to the stores, true. It is important to recollect that for over 100 years, trains did in fact do a much larger percentage of goods moving, and will have to again, as energy allocation cuts into trucking fuel. Just a heads up, for toll road investors. Maybe railway tunnels and new rail corridors will be a safer Oil Interregnum investment!

The Association of American Railroads used to have an outreach program for middle-school age students in US Schools. This program ended about the time the Freeways were made Federal, about 1956. At that time, Gen. James A Van Fleet wrote a transportation manual, a booklet titled “RAIL TRANSPORT & THE WINNING OF WARS”, in which he warned policymakers of the dangers of relying overmuch on highway based economics at the expense of the rail network in place (in 1956). Inevitable overdependence on foreigh oil was a key element in his thesis…

Van Fleet’s book can be obtained from the Association of American Railroads in D.C. It is eerily contemporary-

]]> By: Sloan Auchincloss http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-416 Sloan Auchincloss Thu, 21 Jun 2007 21:48:28 +0000 http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-416 Economic development and emergency management are better issues for promoting transit. Dump the Pump is "catchy" but abandoning a car for giving transit a try is not realistic for most people. Economic development and emergency management are better issues for promoting transit. Dump the Pump is “catchy” but abandoning a car for giving transit a try is not realistic for most people.

]]> By: J. Drake http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-415 J. Drake Thu, 21 Jun 2007 20:08:57 +0000 http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-415 I'd love to DTP today and all week long! Alas, I reside in a western area of Phx. AZ that could get me to my work 35 miles east if I would arrive at a Park 'n Ride at 6:30 a.m. (guess my 13 year old would have to figure out how to get herself to school), do a few transfers and arrive 3 blocks from the office door just before 9:00. Oh yes, it's 113 degrees in the Valley of the Sun today, this first day of summer...so much for your nice 'walking/biking' imaginings, Fred. Wish it were so. Yeah, its a dry heat...nope, it bakes you. What about a Washington initiative to Dump The Pump Price? That they could do... I’d love to DTP today and all week long! Alas, I reside in a western area of Phx. AZ that could get me to my work 35 miles east if I would arrive at a Park ‘n Ride at 6:30 a.m. (guess my 13 year old would have to figure out how to get herself to school), do a few transfers and arrive 3 blocks from the office door just before 9:00. Oh yes, it’s 113 degrees in the Valley of the Sun today, this first day of summer…so much for your nice ‘walking/biking’ imaginings, Fred. Wish it were so. Yeah, its a dry heat…nope, it bakes you. What about a Washington initiative to Dump The Pump Price? That they could do…

]]> By: Steve Polzin http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-414 Steve Polzin Thu, 21 Jun 2007 16:39:06 +0000 http://www.masstransitmag.com/interactive/2007/06/21/dump-the-pump/#comment-414 The recent rash of stories relating to the ACS and transit use and gas prices was untimely and somewhat misleading. The ACS data that the Census reprocessed and disseminated had been available since last fall and had been analyzed by folks previously. The data was 2005 data collected continuously during the 2005 calendar year or approximately as I recall. The average price of gas in 2005 was something like $2.27. The 2005 mode share data is not a particularly useful measure of responses to the gas price increases that are fresh in people's minds today. While the recent shift to transit has not been dramatic, the stories were somewhat misleading as the readers were inclined to interpret the 2005 mode share numbers in the context of recent big run ups in gas price. In fall of 2008 we will have 2007 ACS to give a better indicator of mode share data. In the mean time transit ridership numbers and VMT and fuel use numbers give a hint of the trends. The recent rash of stories relating to the ACS and transit use and gas prices was untimely and somewhat misleading. The ACS data that the Census reprocessed and disseminated had been available since last fall and had been analyzed by folks previously. The data was 2005 data collected continuously during the 2005 calendar year or approximately as I recall. The average price of gas in 2005 was something like $2.27. The 2005 mode share data is not a particularly useful measure of responses to the gas price increases that are fresh in people’s minds today. While the recent shift to transit has not been dramatic, the stories were somewhat misleading as the readers were inclined to interpret the 2005 mode share numbers in the context of recent big run ups in gas price.

In fall of 2008 we will have 2007 ACS to give a better indicator of mode share data. In the mean time transit ridership numbers and VMT and fuel use numbers give a hint of the trends.

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